It is a cloudy, moody fall day across Southern Colorado. While temperatures are running just a little above average in many spots, the overcast skies and changing leaves are making it feel every bit like autumn from Colorado Springs to Pueblo and into the high country. The biggest weather concern through the next couple of days is heavy rain and the potential for flooding and flash flooding across the southwest mountains. A slow-moving area of low pressure to our west is sending steady bands of moisture from southwest to northeast across the region. That setup is especially concerning around Pagosa Springs, Durango, the eastern San Juan Mountains, and the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Showers are already passing through the Pagosa Springs area, including near Highway 160 and west toward Highway 84. Some of those showers are lighter to moderate at times, but rain may become heavier through the afternoon and evening. Storms will not move very quickly, which can allow a lot of rain to fall over the same areas in a short amount of time. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday afternoon for the eastern San Juan Mountains and Upper Rio Grande Valley. Flooding concerns include small streams and rivers, low-lying roads, poor-drainage areas, and locations with steep terrain. Rock and mud slides are also possible in the mountains where the ground is saturated.Burn scars need extra attention in this kind of weather pattern. Near Ouray, the Gold Mountain Fire burn scar is one area of concern. Burned ground can become hydrophobic, meaning it does not absorb water well. Rain can run off quickly, creating rapid rises in water, debris flows, and dangerous conditions downstream. If you live near, travel through, or plan to recreate around a burn scar, stay alert and be ready to move quickly if conditions worsen. Moisture is widespread across southwest Colorado and the southern mountains. Dew points are high for this time of year around Durango and the San Juans, signaling just how much moisture is available. The San Juans and Sangre de Cristo Mountains will remain favored for periods of steadier rain, with the heaviest rain potential centered on the southwest mountains through tonight and into Friday. Snow levels are staying high for now, generally above 12,000 feet. That means most of this event falls as rain in the mountain communities, passes, and lower high-country elevations. The highest peaks can see snow, including some heavier snow at the highest elevations, but rain and flooding remain the more immediate concern for the areas where people live and travel. Colorado Springs and Pueblo will also see the influence of this unsettled pattern. Low clouds are hanging around parts of the Pikes Peak region, and there will be opportunities for showers along the I-25 corridor and out across the eastern plains. Not everyone will see steady rain, but keep rain gear close and watch for changing road conditions during the afternoon and evening. Friday brings a cold front into Southern Colorado. Ahead of it, temperatures can still reach the 70s around El Paso County, with milder conditions across the plains. Showers and storms may redevelop, especially over the mountains and southern portions of the region. Gusty winds may also develop Friday, so travelers in high-profile vehicles and anyone spending time outdoors should be prepared for changing conditions. By Saturday, a more noticeable cooldown arrives. Temperatures around the Pikes Peak region are expected to drop into the 40s and 50s, bringing a much more fall-like feel. Rain chances continue, and some local mountain communities could see a rain-and-snow mix as colder air moves in. Snow levels will lower over the weekend, with accumulating snow possible on the higher terrain. The weekend looks cooler and wetter across much of Southern Colorado. Widespread rain remains possible Saturday and Sunday, and locally heavier showers could renew flooding concerns where rain continues to fall repeatedly. This is especially important for the southwest mountains, southeast Colorado, areas with saturated ground, and places that have already picked up rain this week. For now, the key message is simple: keep a close eye on conditions if you are in or heading toward the San Juans, Pagosa Springs, Durango, the Upper Rio Grande Valley, or nearby mountain passes. Never drive across a flooded roadway, and remember that water can rise quickly in canyons, near creeks, and below burn scars. Give yourself extra travel time and have a backup route if mountain weather is part of your plans. After the weekend system moves through, conditions should gradually trend warmer and drier early next week. Until then, Southern Colorado has several rounds of weather to work through, from heavy mountain rain and flooding concerns to a cooler, wetter weekend with lower snow levels. Our Weather. Together. [P2P:BC]
