The strong El Niño is here. Yes, THAT Super El Niño.
The Climate Prediction Center’s September-through-November outlook favors above-average precipitation across parts of Colorado, with a stronger signal in the Southwest and Pacific Northwest.
The lingering southwest monsoon pattern may help early in the fall, then looks ahead to the winter pattern typically associated with El Niño. For Colorado’s ski country, the best odds for above-average snowfall may be in the southwestern mountains, including Telluride, Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Monarch. The signal is less consistent for the central and northern mountains, including the I-70 corridor resorts, Winter Park, and Steamboat.
A strong El Niño does not guarantee a snowy winter everywhere. Along the Front Range, eastern plains, and areas south of I-70, El Niño can raise the odds of a memorable, high-impact storm. Matt reviews several major Colorado storms that occurred during strong El Niño years, including the 1982 Christmas blizzard, the October 1997 blizzard, December 2006 storms, and the 2019 bomb cyclone.
The bottom line: El Niño can tilt the odds toward wetter conditions and occasional powerful storms, but Colorado’s winter outcome will still depend on the day-to-day storm track. We’ll continue to update the outlook as the season takes shape. Subscribe to Peaks2Plains Weather for local, practical Colorado weather updates. Our Weather. Together.
