Mandatory evacuations are in place near Pagosa Springs as the San Juan River runs bankfull and is expected to crest around 13.9 feet overnight. Flood stage is about 12.5 feet, and additional rain moving into the San Juans could allow the river to overflow its banks.This is the main weather concern tonight. A broad area of low pressure and a trough are pulling Pacific moisture into southwest Colorado, keeping showers and thunderstorms going across the San Juan Mountains. Rain that falls in the high country does not stay there; it drains into creeks, tributaries, and rivers downstream. With already high water and more rain in the forecast, flooding concerns remain elevated through the night. The Flood Watch continues until noon Friday for much of the San Juan Mountains, including the eastern San Juans and Upper Rio Grande Valley. Periods of rain may be heavy at times, and storms will be slow-moving overnight. That raises concerns not only for stream and river flooding, but also for water crossing roads and potential rock or mud slides in the mountains.
Highway 160 between Wolf Creek Pass and South Fork, near the Park Creek Bridge, has been closed because floodwaters are moving across the roadway. If you are traveling in southwest Colorado, be ready for changing road conditions, standing water, and closures. Never drive through water covering a road, especially after dark when it can be difficult to judge the depth or whether the road beneath has been damaged. Snow levels stay high overnight, generally above 12,000 to 13,000 feet, so most of the precipitation in the San Juans will fall as rain. A few showers may also sneak farther east overnight, including northern El Paso County, areas east of Pueblo, and parts of the Highway 50 corridor. Friday starts warm and breezy across southern Colorado. Colorado Springs and much of El Paso County reach the 70s, while Pueblo and the eastern plains climb into the 80s. West to southwest winds may gust around 20 to 30 mph, adding to the warm feel ahead of a weekend cooldown.
A few showers could be around Friday morning near Fountain, Fort Carson, and western Pueblo County, while the heaviest rain remains focused closer to the high country. There may be a brief break later in the morning, with a little sunshine possible along the I-25 corridor. That sunshine may help destabilize the atmosphere enough for another round of afternoon storms. Between about 2 and 5 p.m. Friday, a couple of storms east of I-25 and south of Highway 50 could become strong to severe. The Wet Mountains are also included in that area of concern. Keep an eye out for changing skies during the afternoon, particularly if you have outdoor plans, travel, or livestock to tend to. Gusty winds and hail are possible with the stronger storms. Friday night into Saturday morning, a cold front moves through southern Colorado. That will turn winds northerly, bring in lower clouds, and drop temperatures noticeably. Saturday looks like a dreary start to the weekend, with lingering showers, clouds, and a much cooler feel across the region. Colorado Springs may only manage highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday, a sharp change from Friday’s warmth. Teller County could start the weekend in the 40s, and even the lower elevations will feel cooler under clouds and occasional showers. North winds may still be breezy at times, especially Saturday afternoon. The weekend will carry the better chance for additional moisture, so plan for wet roads, slower travel, and a little extra time if you are heading through the mountains or across southern Colorado. Rain will be the main concern for most lower elevations, while colder air will begin lowering snow levels in the high country. Mountain routes can change quickly when temperatures fall and precipitation continues. For Pagosa Springs, the San Juans, and nearby drainages, stay especially weather aware overnight and into Friday. Pay attention to local emergency information, evacuation instructions, road closures, and river updates. If you live near a creek, river, drainage, or low-lying area, have a plan to move quickly if conditions worsen. After the wet and cool weekend, temperatures settle into a more fall-like pattern next week. Colorado Springs trends toward steady highs in the 60s, with Pueblo also settling into the 60s. Moisture chances look more limited after the weekend, and the overall pattern becomes more seasonal as Halloween approaches. Friday brings warmth, wind, and another chance for thunderstorms. Saturday and Sunday bring a much cooler, cloudier, and wetter feel. The immediate focus, though, remains on flooding concerns around Pagosa Springs and the San Juan Mountains tonight. Download the Peaks2Plains Weather app and watch our 24-hour weather channel. Our Weather. Together. [P2P:PL]
