LONGER TERM OUTLOOK
If you remember about a week or so ago I did a post about the middle of March perhaps being active and something to watch for. What you see here is the 500mb (~18,000′) height lines and the height anomaly for the first two weekends of March.
This is the average of the 50 different model runs that are part of the European Ensemble. A couple things I’ll point out if you’re a fan of some active weather and are hoping for more snow up on the slopes and maybe stormy weather of at least some sort east of the mountains.
See the dip in the black lines over the Rockies? That’s a good sign as it indicates the average of the ensemble members are seeing troughiness which indicates a higher likelihood of at least some waves moving through the neighborhood.
The active pattern into the following weekend would likely bring colder air (see the blue?) than the 3/7-3/8 timeframe as the 500mb anomaly from the ensemble average is negative…meaning that the height of the 500mb pressure surfaces is lower than what is normal for the time of year, indicating a higher chance of noticeably colder airmasses moving through the with the waves, indicating perhaps (we’ll see….a long ways out and many details between now and then to discern….this is just a heads up type outlook…about all we can do this far out, really) a better chance of some snow at lower elevations compared to the first weekend. Could the first weekend be cold enough to snow….it might! It’s just that deeper into the month looks to promise colder air.
