How does this winter compare to other winters in Colorado? Answering that question is challenging when you talk about trying to quantify it. Several researchers came up with a way to objectively and scientifically compare winters among each other. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index was originally developed in 2015 using temperature, snowfall, and snow on the ground each day during the winter to calculate an AWSSI value. The AWSSI is a running value through the winter season.
Here is the AWSSI for Colorado Springs through February 22 for the current winter. You can see that not surprisingly we’ve been in the mild category throughout. Some of the jumps in value are due to either cold snaps, or snow storms. When I checked some other locations across the state, it tells a pretty similar story.
Also presented are the March-May outlooks for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center. I’d say our odds of getting out of the mild category are categorically low before the winter weather season is over. Remember that the CPC outlooks give a likelihood of being above or below average. The lowest category of above or below that is colored in is 33% chance and increasing from there. The gray areas of the map show equal chances of being above or below average.
