Our next chance at another active stormy stretch looks to be in the middle of March, unfortunately – somewhere in the 15th-20th timeframe. Ensemble means of the 500mb height surface have been waffling a little bit on run-to-run comparisons, but have been showing a negative anomaly (blue shading) in the western U.S. in this timeframe more than anything else.
You may remember that negative anomaly values of the 500mb pressure surface (~18,000′) indicates a higher likelihood of cool/colder air and a trough-based pattern, whereas a positive anomaly is more likely associated with a ridge.
You also see in this chart below….which shows a running snow total for each of the 50 ensemble members (each ensemble member starts with slightly different initial conditions) shows snow picking up in the middle of March. This lends credence to the map above suggesting a more active stretch.
The spring season of high school sports officially starts on Monday – that in and of itself is usually a sign that some period of crappy weather can be expected!
