Snow Pack Still Low – Heading Toward Peak – And Start of Melt Off

Even after a late-week snow storm heading into the first full-weekend of March, 2026, snow pack across Colorado remains at historical lows. The Arkansas River basin is less than half of average and the other two basins in the southern third of the state are barely above 50% of average. For some perspective, Arapahoe Basin, which has one of the highest base areas in Colorado at more than 10,500′, only beat by Loveland Ski Area at 10,800′, opened Montezuma Bowl for the first time this season after last week’s storm. There was a legit powder day last Friday and a really good start to the weekend of skiing and riding, but this is likely as good as it is going to be the rest of the way given where snow pack is at and the longer range forecast. Not to say there won’t be a few other powder days, but things are likely to start heading toward the end of the season sooner rather than later when you look at where we are, and what has happened in lower snow pack years in the past.

WHERE WE ARE AND WHERE WE’RE GOING

The graph above shows the current year snow pack from the automated sensors of the SNOTEL data set in black. As of this writing on March 9, we remain at the historical low of this data set that began in the late 1970s and expanded through the early 1990s. Notice how the peak of snow pack during lower snow pack years (March 23) is a couple of weeks earlier than years with higher snow pack (April 20). Knowing this history, and an extended stretch of warm and likely pretty dry weather, we are going to transition into the beginning of the melt off over the next couple of weeks. In fact, we may be near record melt-off status too as the longer term outlook through meteorological spring doesn’t look great.