When you get more than five days out into the future, the ability for forecasts to be of any use regarding specifics really decreases. As a forecaster, you’re looking for big signals in the upper-level pattern between different computer models to try and find features or big shifts that are likely to drive a certain sustaining pattern, or a pattern change.
Looking into the first couple of weeks of December there is a really strong jet that comes off of the Aleutian low into the western North American continent. Three different long-range computer models have the jet with the strength of it being pretty similar. It’s not a surprise that the location of the jet is in much different spots, and the eastward movement is different too.
So, what CAN we do with this information this far out. First, there’s something to watch in this time frame – think of it as a strong signal that there will be active weather of some sort across the Rockies.
Most of the information at this point is pointing to the possibility of some warming downslope wind given that most of the numerical guidance suite has the jet to our north.
If the jet starts digging south while still over the ocean, we’d start to get more interested in the chance of moisture in southern Colorado.
I’ll watch for these trends over the week ahead.
-Matt
