Changes Taking Shape as Week Begins

PATTERN CHANGING

High pressure shifting east of the area over the next few days. As it moves, we’re already seeing signs of the changes as the monsoon flow is showing up now to our west…smoke conditions are likely to improve…mountain temperatures come down a degree or two…and the chance of rain creeps up each day.

HEAT CONTINUES

Record heat is still in play on Sunday afternoon with temperatures above 100° along the Arkansas River with 90s elsewhere east of the mountains. Fewer spots on the valley floors get to 90° around Gunnison and Alamosa today, a trend that continues in the early week. Storms become more likely to bring rain in addition to gusty wind, more so Monday than Sunday as we really start to increase how much water is in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

STORMY STRETCH

As the monsoon keeps strengthening through the week, storms get more likely each day over the mountains. A cold front arriving Wednesday brings low-level moisture east of the mountains that adds an extra little oomph and really brings up the chance for heavy rain east of the Rockies.

 
Once it gets here, storms will be pretty widespread with heavy rain each day with the strongest storms right on through the weekend. We’ve got good agreement in all computer models on this pattern and widespread 1″-2″ of rain with some areas getting closer to 3″ through the late week and weekend is likely. Flash flood risks will come up area wide, particularly for ongoing fires and new burns and for other spots around the area that don’t move water well.